What political consequences would a government shutdown have had in the weeks before the midterms?

A government shutdown before a midterm election usually hurts the president’s approval ratings. Media coverage typically blames the party controlling the White House. This framing mobilizes the opposition base while depressing turnout among the president’s supporters. The governing party consistently loses net seats in the House. Senate losses happen less often. Opposition leaders and aligned interest groups drive the most active mobilization. Governing party leaders often fail to counter effectively. The typical penalty is a loss of 20–40 House seats and up to 4 Senate seats.